PACER — Phaseout Allocation based on Capacity and Equitable Responsibility

Lebdioui, A. (2025) · TIDE Centre, University of Oxford 📄 Full working paper
Published Formula — PACER v5
PACER = (1/3)×Sint + (1/6)×Shist + (1/6)×Sghg + (1/6)×Sinc + (1/12)×Sdep + (1/12)×Snog
Carbon intensity of extraction
Ecological Cost · weight 1/3
Upstream CO₂/barrel · log scale · Fossil Fuel Registry
Weight33%
Historical cumulative CO₂
Environmental Justice · weight 1/6
Stepped fair-share classification · OWID/GCP
Weight17%
Annual GHG per capita
Environmental Justice · weight 1/6
Excl. LULUCF · tCO₂e/cap · WB WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC
Weight17%
National income (GNI group)
Economic Ease · weight 1/6
HI=1.0 · UM=0.5 · LM=0.3 · Low=0.1 · World Bank
Weight17%
Export independence
Economic Ease · weight 1/12
1 − FF export share · avg 2017–21 · UN Comtrade
Weight8%
Non-OG GDP per capita
Economic Ease · weight 1/12
Log scale · avg 2017–21 · World Bank WDI
Weight8%
Optional Filter
Historical CO₂ excl. land use
Substitutes Shist with fossil-fuel-only cumulative CO₂ · GCP
When active, Shist uses fossil-fuel-only scores (LULUCF excluded). Rankings update automatically.
Total weight: 100%
Adjusting weights recalculates all scores live. The "Δ Rank" column shows how each country's ranking changes relative to the published formula.
Oil PACER Rankings — 78 Producing Countries
Country Rankings
Rank ↕ Country Score Δ Rank Wave Sint Shist Sghg Sinc Sdep Snog Prod (TwH)
Phase-Out Scenarios
Adjust parameters — see if your allocation meets the IPCC target
IPCC compliance
—
2050 prod (TwH)
—
IPCC ceiling
—
% reduction
—
Time Equity Scenario
Volumetric Equity Scenario
PACER = (1/3)×Sint + (1/6)×Shist + (1/6)×Sghg + (1/6)×Sinc + (1/12)×Sdep + (1/12)×Snog
Data: Fossil Fuel Registry · World Bank WDI · UN Comtrade · OWID/GCP · Scenarios calibrated to IPCC AR6 C1 (1.5°C) pathway · Lebdioui, A. (2025), TIDE Centre, University of Oxford