Differentiated Phase-Out Index (DPOI) — Interactive Sensitivity Tool

Lebdioui, A. (2025) · University of Oxford · Switch between oil and gas · adjust pillar weights · explore phase-out scenarios

Core Pillars — Published Formula (1/3 · 1/3 · 1/6 · 1/6)
Carbon Intensity of ExtractionUpstream CO₂/barrel · log scale · Fossil Fuel Registry
33%
Historical CO₂ EmissionsCumulative national emissions · stepped fair-share score · OWID/GCP
33%
National Income (GNI per capita)World Bank income group ordinal score · World Bank WDI
17%
Export Independence1 − fossil fuel share of exports · UN Comtrade
17%
Optional Pillars — Robustness Checks
Non-Oil-Gas GDP per CapitaGDP×(1−oil rents−gas rents) avg 2017–21 · WB WDI · log
10%
GHG Emissions per CapitaTotal GHG excl. LULUCF t CO₂e/cap avg 2017–21 · WB WDI
10%
Renewable Share (inverted)1 − renewables% of electricity · high RE → lower score · IEA approx. 2021
10%
Non-oil-gas GDP: NY.GDP.PCAP.CD × (1−NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS/100−NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS/100), avg 2017–21. GHG: EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5. Renewable share (IEA ~2021) inverted. Activating optional pillars auto-scales core weights to maintain 100%.
Total weight: 100%
Oil DPOI Rankings — 78 Producing Countries
Country Rankings
Rank Country Score Δ Rank Wave Non-OG GDP GHG/cap RE%
Phase-Out Scenarios — Oil (IPCC AR6: −60% by 2050)
Conservative · uniform cut per wave
Distributed · graduated cuts
Formula: DPOI = w&sub1;·S_intensity + w&sub2;·S_hist + w&sub3;·S_income + w&sub4;·S_dependence [+ optional pillars] · Published weights: 1/3 · 1/3 · 1/6 · 1/6
Data: Fossil Fuel Registry · World Bank WDI · UN Comtrade · OWID/GCP · IEA · Rystad Energy · Scenarios: IPCC AR6 WG3 (2022) · Lebdioui, A. (2025), University of Oxford